Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.
Identifieur interne : 000460 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000459; suivant : 000461Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.
Auteurs : David J. Sharrow [États-Unis] ; Samuel J. Clark [Ghana] ; Adrian E. Raftery [États-Unis]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections à VIH.
- Facteurs de l'âge, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Prévalence, Tables de survie, Épidémies.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- mortality : HIV Infections.
- statistics & numerical data : Epidemics.
- Age Factors, Humans, Life Tables, Models, Theoretical, Prevalence.
Abstract
In a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0096447
PubMed: 24853081
Affiliations:
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Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Ghana</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Région du Grand Accra</li><li>Washington (État)</li></region><settlement><li>Accra</li><li>Seattle</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Washington</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Washington (État)"><name sortKey="Sharrow, David J" sort="Sharrow, David J" uniqKey="Sharrow D" first="David J" last="Sharrow">David J. Sharrow</name></region><name sortKey="Raftery, Adrian E" sort="Raftery, Adrian E" uniqKey="Raftery A" first="Adrian E" last="Raftery">Adrian E. Raftery</name></country><country name="Ghana"><region name="Région du Grand Accra"><name sortKey="Clark, Samuel J" sort="Clark, Samuel J" uniqKey="Clark S" first="Samuel J" last="Clark">Samuel J. 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